Did Sky Lanterns Explain the Aguadilla Video?

Introduction

In March 2025, the Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) released its long-awaited explanation for the 2013 Aguadilla infrared video from Puerto Rico. The office concluded that the famous footage did not show a single craft performing extraordinary manoeuvres, entering the sea, or splitting in two. Instead, AARO assessed with moderate confidence that the video captured two small airborne objects — probably sky lanterns — drifting with the wind while being observed from a moving aircraft. [AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAAROAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution20 Mar 2025 — AARO assesses with moderate confidence that the objects were a pair of sky lanterns…

That conclusion dramatically reframed one of the most discussed UAP videos of the last decade. For years, independent researchers associated with the Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies (SCU) had argued that the object displayed unusual characteristics including low-altitude high-speed movement, apparent transmedium travel, and physical division into two separate objects. AARO’s reconstruction instead treated those effects as artefacts of viewing geometry, infrared contrast, and line-of-sight compression. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgZenodo2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP: The detailed analysis of…6 Aug 2015 — The object in the video traveled at night without lights t…

The debate now centres less on whether the footage looks strange — most observers agree that it does — and more on whether AARO’s reconstruction fully accounts for every visual feature in the recording.

What AARO concluded in 2025

AARO’s report relied heavily on geospatial reconstruction. Using aircraft telemetry, sensor orientation data, and modelling software, the office concluded that the apparent object path could be recreated without invoking unusual propulsion or transmedium behaviour. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsThis reconstruction also demonstrates that the objects traveled in a straight line at wind speed and did not e…

The central claim was simple but consequential: the video did not show one object splitting into two. According to AARO, it showed two separate airborne objects travelling close together along roughly the same path. Because the infrared camera viewed them from long range and changing angles, the two objects sometimes visually merged into what appeared to be a single target. Later, as the geometry shifted, they appeared to separate. [AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAAROAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution20 Mar 2025 — AARO assesses with moderate confidence that the objects were a pair of sky lanterns…

AARO further argued that the famous “water entry” sequence was an illusion caused by thermal crossover. In infrared imagery, an object becomes difficult to distinguish when its heat signature approaches the background temperature. The office stated that the objects merely passed over water whose thermal characteristics resembled the targets, causing the apparent disappearance. [DefenseScoop]defensescoop.comuap aaro findings go fast puerto rico mt etna objectsDefenseScoopPentagon's UAP office reviews findings on Go Fast, Puerto…19 Nov 2024 — And so we assess that the object, likely a pair of…

The office also rejected claims of extraordinary speed. Earlier interpretations had estimated velocities approaching 100 mph based on assumptions about distance and altitude. AARO instead reconstructed a much slower movement pattern consistent with ambient wind drift, estimating speeds around seven to eight knots. [theblackvault.com]theblackvault.comDoD Report Says Aguadilla UFO Was Just Sky Lanterns20 Mar 2025 — The objects recorded on infrared video did not demonstrate anomalous fli…

In public remarks accompanying the report, AARO director Jon Kosloski used the Aguadilla case as an example of how sensor perspective can create misleading impressions. He argued that the apparent anomalies disappeared once the geometry of the observation platform was reconstructed correctly. [DefenseScoop]defensescoop.comuap aaro findings go fast puerto rico mt etna objectsDefenseScoopPentagon's UAP office reviews findings on Go Fast, Puerto…19 Nov 2024 — And so we assess that the object, likely a pair of…

Wind speed, altitude, and object size

The plausibility of the sky-lantern explanation depends almost entirely on three linked variables: how far away the objects were, how high they were, and how fast the wind was moving.

AARO’s reconstruction placed the objects much farther from the observing aircraft than earlier UAP analyses had assumed. That greater distance shrinks the estimated size of the targets and lowers their apparent speed. In this model, small drifting lanterns become physically plausible because the dramatic motion mostly results from parallax — the apparent movement of a distant object caused by a moving observer. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsThis reconstruction also demonstrates that the objects traveled in a straight line at wind speed and did not e…

The office also argued that the objects were descending gradually while travelling with prevailing winds. This matters because sky lanterns naturally lose altitude as their fuel source weakens. AARO therefore treated the observed descent as consistent with lantern behaviour rather than advanced manoeuvring. [DefenseScoop]defensescoop.comuap aaro findings go fast puerto rico mt etna objectsDefenseScoopPentagon's UAP office reviews findings on Go Fast, Puerto…19 Nov 2024 — And so we assess that the object, likely a pair of…

Sceptical investigators had proposed balloon or lantern explanations years before the official report. Analysts on Metabunk argued as early as 2017 that drifting lanterns combined with infrared interpretation errors could explain much of the footage. [Metabunk]metabunk.orgAguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOsMetabunkAguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOs' - Probably Hot Air…26 Jul 2017 — Summarizing all the reports written on this strange UFO…

What changed in 2025 was not merely the suggestion of lanterns, but the fact that a US government office formally endorsed the explanation after conducting a classified-data reconstruction.

Why infrared footage complicates intuitive judgement

The Aguadilla case demonstrates how difficult infrared video is to interpret without precise telemetry.

Unlike ordinary visible-light footage, thermal imagery compresses information about distance, texture and scale. A bright infrared spot does not automatically indicate a hot engine or structured craft. Likewise, apparent changes in shape may reflect sensor blooming, thermal contrast shifts, or image processing rather than physical transformation. [Scientific American]scientificamerican.comScientific American The U.SGovernment's Top UFO Scientist Has an Open…25 Mar 2025 — Video footage of an Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon (UAP) event, captured b…

AARO’s explanation depends heavily on this principle. The office argued that many of the video’s dramatic moments occur precisely when the aircraft changes angle, zoom level, or background environment. The famous “water entry” segment, for example, coincides with the object moving against cooler ocean backgrounds where thermal contrast behaves differently than over land. [DefenseScoop]defensescoop.comuap aaro findings go fast puerto rico mt etna objectsDefenseScoopPentagon's UAP office reviews findings on Go Fast, Puerto…19 Nov 2024 — And so we assess that the object, likely a pair of…

For critics, however, this also creates a problem: if interpretation depends strongly on modelling assumptions, then confidence in the conclusion depends on confidence in the reconstruction process itself.

Why the sky-lantern label remains contested

AARO’s conclusion resolved the case officially, but not universally. Critics do not simply object to the word “lantern”; they question whether the reconstruction fully matches the observable behaviour in the video.

One major criticism concerns the timing of the apparent split. SCU researchers have argued that if two lanterns were present from the beginning, clearer separation should appear earlier in the recording. Some independent analysts also maintain that the thermal signatures and apparent synchronised motion remain difficult to reconcile with ordinary drifting lanterns. [The SCU]explorescu.orgscu announcement on the aaro investigation of the aguadilla videoAARO) hypothesis that sky lanterns are the most likely explanation for the object observed in the 2013 Aguadilla (Puerto Rico) video. We…

Another disputed issue is wind consistency. Critics argue that the required wind profile and object path may not align cleanly across the entire sequence. Reddit discussions among technically minded observers have focused on whether lantern survivability, drift direction, and apparent acceleration fully fit the meteorological conditions proposed by AARO. [Reddit]reddit.comthe 2013 aguadilla ufo incident portrayed asLanterns should show as two separate objects early on, but the…Read more…

SCU publicly stated in 2025 that it had submitted detailed technical questions to AARO but had not yet received full answers. Among the requests were demands for the reconstructed 3D flight path, altitude estimates, and meteorological data underlying the official model. [The SCU]explorescu.orgscu announcement on the aaro investigation of the aguadilla videoAARO) hypothesis that sky lanterns are the most likely explanation for the object observed in the 2013 Aguadilla (Puerto Rico) video. We…

That exchange matters because the disagreement is no longer mainly philosophical. It has become methodological. Both sides now accept that geometry and sensor interpretation are central. The dispute concerns whether AARO’s geometry is demonstrably correct.

The unresolved issue of transparency

AARO’s report provided conclusions and summary graphics, but not a fully reproducible technical package. That has limited independent verification.

Researchers outside government do not necessarily have access to the same raw telemetry, classified calibration data, or modelling parameters used in the official reconstruction. As a result, critics argue that the public cannot independently test the precise assumptions behind the lantern scenario. [The SCU]explorescu.orgscu announcement on the aaro investigation of the aguadilla videoAARO) hypothesis that sky lanterns are the most likely explanation for the object observed in the 2013 Aguadilla (Puerto Rico) video. We…

This is an important distinction. The Aguadilla debate is often portrayed as “believers versus sceptics”, but the more substantive disagreement concerns evidentiary openness. Critics are not only asking whether lanterns are possible; they are asking whether the available public evidence is sufficient to establish that explanation confidently.

What the Aguadilla dispute reveals about UAP investigations

The Aguadilla video became influential because it appeared to offer unusually strong evidence: military-linked provenance, infrared recording, telemetry data, and a long observational sequence. Yet the case ultimately showed how even high-profile sensor footage can remain interpretation-dependent.

AARO now treats the incident as a resolved example of misinterpreted imagery rather than anomalous technology. The office’s reconstruction aligns the objects with ordinary airborne drift and known infrared effects. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsThis reconstruction also demonstrates that the objects traveled in a straight line at wind speed and did not e…

At the same time, the continuing criticism illustrates a broader challenge in UAP analysis. Once a video acquires a reputation as extraordinary, every modelling assumption becomes contested territory: range estimates, atmospheric conditions, camera behaviour, thermal contrast, and even frame timing.

The Aguadilla case therefore remains significant not because it conclusively proves anomalous technology, but because it demonstrates how difficult it is to move from striking imagery to stable interpretation. Even after a formal Pentagon resolution, disagreement persists over whether the sky-lantern explanation fully accounts for what viewers believe they see on screen.

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Endnotes

1. Source: aaro.mil
   Title: Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution
   Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/case_resolution_reports/AARO_Puerto_Rico_UAP_Case_Resolution.pdf
   Source snippet

   AAROAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution20 Mar 2025 — AARO assesses with moderate confidence that the objects were a pair of sky lanterns...

2. Source: zenodo.org
   Link: https://zenodo.org/records/7844175
   Source snippet

   Zenodo2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP: The detailed analysis of...6 Aug 2015 — The object in the video traveled at night without lights t...

3. Source: defensescoop.com
   Title: uap aaro findings go fast puerto rico mt etna objects
   Link: https://defensescoop.com/2024/11/19/uap-aaro-findings-go-fast-puerto-rico-mt-etna-objects/
   Source snippet

   DefenseScoopPentagon's UAP office reviews findings on Go Fast, Puerto...19 Nov 2024 — And so we assess that the object, likely a pair of...

4. Source: theblackvault.com
   Link: https://www.theblackvault.com/documentarchive/dod-report-says-aguadilla-ufo-was-just-sky-lanterns-previous-scientific-studies-claim-otherwise/
   Source snippet

   DoD Report Says Aguadilla UFO Was Just Sky Lanterns20 Mar 2025 — The objects recorded on infrared video did not demonstrate anomalous fli...

5. Source: metabunk.org
   Title: Aguadilla Infrared Footage of ‘UFOs’
   Link: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/aguadilla-infrared-footage-of-ufos-probably-hot-air-wedding-lanterns.8952/
   Source snippet

   MetabunkAguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOs' - Probably Hot Air...26 Jul 2017 — Summarizing all the reports written on this strange UFO...

6. Source: reddit.com
   Title: the 2013 aguadilla ufo incident portrayed as
   Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/ufo/comments/1pbjynd/the_2013_aguadilla_ufo_incident_portrayed_as/
   Source snippet

   Lanterns should show as two separate objects early on, but the...Read more...

7. Source: aaro.mil
   Link: https://www.aaro.mil/UAP-Cases/UAP-Case-Resolution-Reports/
   Source snippet

   UAP Case Resolution ReportsThis reconstruction also demonstrates that the objects traveled in a straight line at wind speed and did not e...

8. Source: metabunk.org
   Title: Should AARO be releasing non-anomalous videos as “
   Link: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/should-aaro-be-releasing-non-anomalous-videos-as-uap.14204/
   Source snippet

   May 16, 2025 — I wonder if it would be possible to communicate to [AARO] that just dumping "Here's another mysterious UAP video that is m...

   Published: May 16, 2025

9. Source: dvidshub.net
   Link: https://www.dvidshub.net/video/944204/puerto-rico-objects
   Source snippet

   Video - Puerto Rico ObjectsThe footage appears to depict a UAP moving at high speed, splitting into two objects, and entering and exiting...

10. Source: scientificamerican.com
    Title: Scientific American The U.S
    Link: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-s-governments-top-ufo-scientist-has-an-open-mind-about-alien/
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    Government's Top UFO Scientist Has an Open...25 Mar 2025 — Video footage of an Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon (UAP) event, captured b...

11. Source: explorescu.org
    Title: scu announcement on the aaro investigation of the aguadilla video
    Link: https://www.explorescu.org/post/scu-announcement-on-the-aaro-investigation-of-the-aguadilla-video
    Source snippet

    (AARO) hypothesis that sky lanterns are the most likely explanation for the object observed in the 2013 Aguadilla (Puerto Rico) video. We...

12. Source: academia.edu
    Title: 2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico
    Link: https://www.academia.edu/40212895/2013_Aguadilla_Puerto_Rico
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    The detailed analysis of an Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon captured by the Department of Homeland Security.Read more...

Additional References

1. Source: prfaa.pr.gov
   Link: https://www.prfaa.pr.gov/recent-press-releases/governor-gonzalez-colon-inaugurates-modernized-air-traffic-control-tower-at-rafael-hernandez-international-airport-in-aguadilla
   Source snippet

   of PRFAA - PR Federal Affairs Administration-2-21-2025The ATCT renovation meets FAA standards and marks the first major rehabilitation of...

2. Source: facebook.com
   Link: https://www.facebook.com/StanfordGSB/posts/orlando-bravo-jdmba-97-was-born-and-raised-in-a-small-town-on-the-west-coast-of-/1285153850323214/
   Source snippet

   , install tarps and deliver medical care to the people of Yabacoa on...Read more...

3. Source: uapedia.ai
   Title: the aguadilla airport incident puerto rico 2013
   Link: https://www.uapedia.ai/wiki/the-aguadilla-airport-incident-puerto-rico-2013/
   Source snippet

   The Aguadilla Airport Incident, Puerto Rico (2013)Explore the 2013 Aguadilla UAP incident: a CBP infrared video analyzed by SCU and AARO...

4. Source: space.com
   Title: we didnt find answers in 2025 but ufo researchers say the search continues
   Link: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/search-for-life/we-didnt-find-answers-in-2025-but-ufo-researchers-say-the-search-continues
   Source snippet

   We didn't find answers in 2025, but UFO researchers say...Dec 23, 2025 — He was the first active-duty pilot to publicly point to his own...

5. Source: space.com
   Title: “We do have some very anomalous objects,” he said.Read more
   Link: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/search-for-life/pentagon-ufo-chief-tells-senate-very-anomalous-objects-need-careful-study-video
   Source snippet

   SpacePentagon UFO chief tells Senate 'very anomalous objects'...Nov 19, 2024 — Kosloski noted that his office does not believe that ever...

6. Source: altpropulsion.com
   Title: aguadilla uap sighting analysis
   Link: https://www.altpropulsion.com/aguadilla-uap-sighting-analysis/
   Source snippet

   2 May 2025 — Rich Hoffman details an investigation into a remarkable UAP sighting captured on video by over Aguadilla, Puerto Rico on Apr...

   Published: May 2025

7. Source: youtube.com
   Title: Aguadilla UAP Video Analysis: Is It “Smoking Gun” Footage? | Rich Hoffman
   Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmvHKAbRuFI
   Source snippet

   SPLITTING ORB UFO ABOVE PUERTO RICO | The Proof is Out There: Bermuda Triangle Edition (Season 1)...

8. Source: youtube.com
   Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSArCxSar6Q
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   UFO FILES: FOIA VIDEO RELEASE of the 'Aguadilla UAP' in Puerto Rico...

9. Source: youtube.com
   Title: UFO FILES: FOIA VIDEO RELEASE of the ‘Aguadilla UAP’ in Puerto Rico
   Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuSZDrBDgb8
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   Top Declassified UFO Videos Released by the Pentagon...

10. Source: youtube.com
    Title: Top Declassified UFO Videos Released by the Pentagon
    Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oER70vPK1aU
    Source snippet

    Aguadilla UAP Video Analysis: Is It "Smoking Gun" Footage? | Rich Hoffman...