Why Some Analysts Still Call It Unresolved

Introduction

The Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies (SCU) treated the 2013 Aguadilla infrared video as one of the strongest publicly available UAP cases because it appeared to combine multiple forms of evidence: authenticated military-style sensor footage, aircraft telemetry, radar correlation, frame-by-frame analysis, and apparent behaviour that the group argued could not be reduced to balloons, birds, or imaging artefacts. For nearly a decade before the U.S. government’s formal resolution, the SCU report shaped discussion of the case and helped establish Aguadilla as a benchmark “hard data” incident within UAP research. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgZenodo2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP: The detailed analysis of…August 6, 2015 — 6 Aug 2015 — This report is a detailed analysis of a H…Published: August 6, 2015

The disagreement today is not merely about whether the object looked strange. It is about geometry, reconstruction methods, and what the infrared data physically demonstrates. SCU concluded that the object showed low-altitude flight, rapid acceleration, apparent transmedium movement into water, and a later split into two objects. In 2025, the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) reached almost the opposite conclusion, arguing that the footage showed two small drifting objects — probably sky lanterns — whose apparent speed and “water entry” resulted from parallax, thermal crossover, and changing viewing angles. [AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAAROAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionMarch 19, 2025 — 20 Mar 2025 — Reported Behavior: Split or replicated; transmedium behavior. Asse…Published: March 19, 2025

The SCU Report’s Core Claims

SCU’s analysis, first published in 2015 and later mirrored through Zenodo archives, argued that the Aguadilla footage remained unresolved because several apparent behaviours survived attempts at conventional explanation. The group did not present the case as proof of extraterrestrial technology, but it did classify the object as a genuine anomalous aerial phenomenon after rejecting what it regarded as inadequate ordinary explanations. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

The report centred on four connected claims:

• the object travelled at substantial speed at low altitude over populated terrain;
• it appeared to enter and leave the ocean without obvious deceleration or splash;
• it later separated into two distinct thermal targets;
• the infrared and telemetry data were internally consistent with a real external object rather than a sensor artefact. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgZenodo2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP: The detailed analysis of…August 6, 2015 — 6 Aug 2015 — This report is a detailed analysis of a H…Published: August 6, 2015

SCU repeatedly stressed that the footage came from a known platform rather than an anonymous leak. The recording was attributed to a U.S. Customs and Border Protection Dash-8 aircraft equipped with a Wescam MX-15D infrared camera operating in the 3–5 micron range. The group said authenticity was checked against radar information and embedded metadata. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

A major part of the report’s influence came from its technical style. The investigators reconstructed flight paths, extracted individual frames, used image processing software, compared apparent motion against background features, and attempted to estimate speed and altitude from telemetry overlays. Supporters of the report often cited this methodology as evidence that Aguadilla was not just another anecdotal UFO story. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

Why the low-altitude claim mattered

SCU argued that the object was sometimes flying below treetop level and near infrastructure around the airport area. That conclusion dramatically increased the significance of the footage in their interpretation because a low-altitude object moving quickly through an urban environment would be difficult to reconcile with lanterns or drifting debris. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

The report also argued that the object crossed near landmarks including buildings, trees, and utility structures without visible collision risk. The group interpreted this as evidence of controlled motion rather than passive wind drift. Critics later challenged whether the object’s apparent proximity to those structures could actually be established from the available geometry. [Academia]academia.edu2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoAcademia2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoGraph 1: Speed measured every 50 frames Object's Interaction with Water Although most of the video conc…

Radar Metadata and Frame-by-Frame Review

SCU’s evidence trail depended heavily on combining the infrared footage with metadata and radar information. The report maintained that radar correlation confirmed the aircraft position and validated the timing and orientation data embedded within the video stream. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

The investigators broke the footage into thousands of individual frames and attempted to track the object’s movement relative to terrain and ocean features. Their calculations produced speed estimates far above local wind velocity, including intervals that they interpreted as roughly 70–130 mph during the later ocean sequence. [Academia]academia.edu2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoAcademia2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoGraph 1: Speed measured every 50 frames Object's Interaction with Water Although most of the video conc…

The report acknowledged that measuring speed from infrared imagery was difficult because the aircraft itself was moving and turning during the observation. Nevertheless, SCU argued that the object’s changes in apparent motion were too large and too structured to be explained solely by camera perspective. [Academia]academia.edu2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoAcademia2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoGraph 1: Speed measured every 50 frames Object's Interaction with Water Although most of the video conc…

The water-interaction sequence

The most controversial section of the report involved the apparent interaction with the ocean. SCU claimed the object entered the water at high speed with little visible disturbance, remained detectable intermittently, then re-emerged before dividing into two parts. [Academia]academia.edu2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoAcademia2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoGraph 1: Speed measured every 50 frames Object's Interaction with Water Although most of the video conc…

The investigators treated the lack of an obvious splash as one of the strongest anomalies in the entire case. According to their interpretation, an object several feet across travelling at high speed should have produced visible effects on the water surface. Instead, the infrared signature seemed to continue almost uninterrupted. [Academia]academia.edu2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoAcademia2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoGraph 1: Speed measured every 50 frames Object's Interaction with Water Although most of the video conc…

SCU did not claim to understand the mechanism involved. Rather, the report framed the event as behaviour inconsistent with conventional aircraft, balloons, birds, or floating debris. The “transmedium” aspect — apparent travel between air and water — became central to Aguadilla’s later reputation in UAP discussions. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

The apparent split into two objects

Another defining feature of the case was the moment near the end of the video where one thermal target appeared to separate into two. SCU interpreted this as a genuine division event rather than a camera effect. The report described the resulting objects as roughly equal in size and thermal intensity. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

This sequence became a focal point in later debates because it strongly influenced whether viewers perceived the footage as anomalous. To supporters of SCU’s analysis, the split suggested behaviour outside known aviation or balloon dynamics. To sceptics, it instead suggested that two nearby objects had been overlapping in the sensor view from the beginning. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

Why SCU Rejected the Lantern Explanation

Before AARO published its formal resolution, independent sceptical researchers had already proposed lanterns or drifting balloons as likely explanations. One of the best-known sceptical discussions emerged through Metabunk and related image-analysis work. [Metabunk]metabunk.orgAguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOsMetabunkAguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOs' - Probably Hot Air…26 Jul 2017 — A very peculiar flying object which yielded a fluctuatin…

SCU rejected that interpretation for several reasons.

First, the group argued that the apparent speed and manoeuvring behaviour exceeded what windborne lanterns should display. Second, it maintained that lanterns should have appeared as two separate objects much earlier if two were present throughout the recording. Third, the investigators argued that lanterns could not plausibly explain the apparent ocean interaction sequence. [Reddit]reddit.comthis is crazyRedditthis is crazy - UAP filmed on 'FLIR system' over the city of…this is crazy - UAP filmed on 'FLIR system' over the city of Aguadi…

SCU supporters also argued that the object occasionally seemed obscured by terrain or trees, implying low altitude inconsistent with a high-floating lantern pair. Critics disputed whether the available perspective actually established such occlusion. [Reddit]reddit.comRedditThe 2013 Aguadilla UFO incident portrayed as authentic in…They: Verified authenticity of the video by correlating the embedded m…

An important feature of the dispute was methodological rather than purely observational. SCU relied heavily on inferred object position from visual interpretation of the imagery, while sceptical analysts increasingly focused on camera geometry, slant range uncertainty, and motion parallax. That difference in analytical starting point eventually became the core divide between SCU and AARO. [AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAAROAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionMarch 19, 2025 — 20 Mar 2025 — Reported Behavior: Split or replicated; transmedium behavior. Asse…Published: March 19, 2025

Where SCU and AARO Disagree

AARO’s 2025 resolution directly challenged nearly every major anomalous inference in the SCU report. Using Systems Tool Kit (STK) reconstruction software, AARO concluded that the objects were drifting at approximately 8 mph, matching local wind conditions. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

According to AARO, the apparent high-speed movement came from motion parallax created by the aircraft’s own movement, zoom level, and changing viewing geometry. In this interpretation, the object only looked fast because the observing aircraft was flying a curved path while tracking distant targets. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

The disagreement over altitude is especially important. SCU’s interpretation depended on the object remaining relatively low over terrain. AARO instead reconstructed the objects at a higher altitude and argued they remained over land throughout the encounter. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

The split event

AARO concluded that the footage showed two objects from the beginning rather than one object dividing. Its report identified multiple earlier moments where slight separations between the targets were visible before the dramatic late-stage divergence. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

In AARO’s reconstruction, the apparent “split” became more pronounced because the aircraft gained altitude and the sensor angle shifted from a shallow side view to a steeper top-down perspective. What SCU interpreted as replication or division was reframed as improved visual separation between two already distinct objects. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

The water-entry dispute

AARO also rejected the transmedium interpretation outright. Its report argued that the objects never entered the ocean at all. Instead, the infrared targets lost thermal contrast when the ocean became the background, making them appear to disappear into the water. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

This explanation depends on a known infrared imaging issue: thermal crossover. When a target and background have similar infrared characteristics, the target can fade or vanish from the sensor image even though it remains physically visible in ordinary light. AARO argued that this effect explained both the apparent disappearance and the illusion of underwater travel. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

SCU’s supporters counter that the reconstruction still does not fully explain the visual continuity perceived in the footage or the timing of the apparent re-emergence sequence. The disagreement therefore remains partly interpretive rather than purely mathematical. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

Why the Case Still Divides Analysts

The Aguadilla case persists because both sides can point to technically sophisticated analysis rather than simple speculation. SCU built one of the most detailed independent UAP reports ever published, complete with telemetry discussion, image analysis, appendices, and speed calculations. AARO later responded with its own reconstruction-based assessment using government analytical resources and a formal case-resolution framework. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

For supporters of SCU’s position, the case remains unresolved because they believe the official explanation underestimates the significance of the low-altitude and water-interaction sequences. They also argue that lantern hypotheses struggle to match the object’s apparent persistence, thermal appearance, and behaviour across the full video. [Zenodo]zenodo.orgUnlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden…Published: May 2026

For sceptics and AARO analysts, the case demonstrates how infrared footage can produce persuasive but misleading impressions when distance and geometry are uncertain. In that view, Aguadilla is not evidence of exotic technology but a cautionary example of how parallax and sensor interpretation can create apparent anomalies from ordinary airborne objects. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace…

What keeps the case important is not that it conclusively proves either position. It is that Aguadilla became a rare public test case where two highly detailed analytical traditions — independent UAP investigation and official government reconstruction — arrived at fundamentally incompatible conclusions while examining essentially the same dataset.

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Endnotes

1. Source: zenodo.org
   Link: https://zenodo.org/records/7844175
   Source snippet

   Zenodo2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP: The detailed analysis of...August 6, 2015 — 6 Aug 2015 — This report is a detailed analysis of a H...

   Published: August 6, 2015

2. Source: aaro.mil
   Title: Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution
   Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/case_resolution_reports/AARO_Puerto_Rico_UAP_Case_Resolution.pdf
   Source snippet

   AAROAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionMarch 19, 2025 — 20 Mar 2025 — Reported Behavior: Split or replicated; transmedium behavior. Asse...

   Published: March 19, 2025

3. Source: academia.edu
   Title: 2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico
   Link: https://www.academia.edu/40212895/2013_Aguadilla_Puerto_Rico
   Source snippet

   Academia2013 Aguadilla Puerto RicoGraph 1: Speed measured every 50 frames Object's Interaction with Water Although most of the video conc...

4. Source: reddit.com
   Title: this is crazy
   Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/aliens/comments/xzpvwd/this_is_crazy_uap_filmed_on_flir_system_over_the/
   Source snippet

   Redditthis is crazy - UAP filmed on 'FLIR system' over the city of...this is crazy - UAP filmed on 'FLIR system' over the city of Aguadi...

5. Source: metabunk.org
   Title: Aguadilla Infrared Footage of ‘UFOs’
   Link: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/aguadilla-infrared-footage-of-ufos-probably-hot-air-wedding-lanterns.8952/
   Source snippet

   MetabunkAguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOs' - Probably Hot Air...26 Jul 2017 — A very peculiar flying object which yielded a fluctuatin...

6. Source: reddit.com
   Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/ufo/comments/1pbjynd/the_2013_aguadilla_ufo_incident_portrayed_as/
   Source snippet

   RedditThe 2013 Aguadilla UFO incident portrayed as authentic in...They: Verified authenticity of the video by correlating the embedded m...

7. Source: reddit.com
   Title: stabilized footage of the uap over aguadilla
   Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/15x1fec/stabilized_footage_of_the_uap_over_aguadilla/
   Source snippet

   I have yet to see a bird that can move laterally at low altitudes without flapping its wings, and maintain its speed while...

8. Source: zenodo.org
   Link: https://zenodo.org/records/20137882
   Source snippet

   Unlocking the Pentagon's Declassified UFO Secrets12 May 2026 — Abstract For nearly eight decades, the global narrative surrounding Uniden...

   Published: May 2026

9. Source: aaro.mil
   Link: https://www.aaro.mil/UAP-Cases/UAP-Case-Resolution-Reports/
   Source snippet

   UAP Case Resolution ReportsMilitary personnel reported this observation as UAP presenting a potential incursion into restricted airspace...

Additional References

1. Source: handprint.com
   Link: https://www.handprint.com/UFO/UFO.html
   Source snippet

   UFO as wildlifeThe SCU AGUADILLA report describes the approximately 1 meter object as containing "a warm section shaped vaguely like a du...

2. Source: explorescu.org
   Link: https://www.explorescu.org/post/scientific-coalition-for-uap-studies-statement-on-senate-oversight-hearing-on-all-domain-anomaly-res
   Source snippet

   SCU Statement on Senate Oversight Hearing on All-...20 Nov 2024 — After AARO referenced the Aguadilla UAP incident in their Senate subco...

3. Source: defensescoop.com
   Title: uap aaro findings go fast puerto rico mt etna objects
   Link: https://defensescoop.com/2024/11/19/uap-aaro-findings-go-fast-puerto-rico-mt-etna-objects/
   Source snippet

   Pentagon's UAP office reviews findings on Go Fast, Puerto...19 Nov 2024 — The head of the Defense Department's All-Domain Anomaly Resolu...

4. Source: uapedia.ai
   Title: the aguadilla airport incident puerto rico 2013
   Link: https://www.uapedia.ai/wiki/the-aguadilla-airport-incident-puerto-rico-2013/
   Source snippet

   UAPedia - Unlocking New RealitiesThe Aguadilla Airport Incident, Puerto Rico (2013)Explore the 2013 Aguadilla UAP incident: a CBP infrare...

5. Source: youtube.com
   Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSArCxSar6Q
   Source snippet

   UFO video analysis: The Rubber Duck, La Bruja, The Cigar and more | Reality Check...

6. Source: altpropulsion.com
   Title: aguadilla uap sighting analysis
   Link: https://www.altpropulsion.com/aguadilla-uap-sighting-analysis/
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   2 May 2025 — The radar data independently validated the video's account, showing the object's speed at an astonishing 1200 mph. Multiple...

   Published: May 2025

7. Source: tvi.show
   Title: the 2013 aguadilla ufo video
   Link: https://www.tvi.show/skywatch-files/the-2013-aguadilla-ufo-video
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   Unraveling Puerto Rico's...2 May 2025 — SCU's investigators concluded that the object's flight dynamics, speed, and ability to seemingly...

   Published: May 2025

8. Source: scirp.org
   Link: https://www.scirp.org/pdf/ojapps_2313283.pdf
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   Five New Observables of UAP: Empirical Evidence of Dark...22 Oct 2025 — They've been applied—successfully—in high-profile UAP analyses l...

9. Source: youtube.com
   Title: Aguadilla UAP Video Analysis: Is It “Smoking Gun” Footage? | Rich Hoffman
   Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmvHKAbRuFI
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   Darcy Weir on why AARO might be trying to debunk Puerto Rico's Aguadilla object | Reality Check...

10. Source: arxiv.org
    Link: https://arxiv.org/html/2502.06794v2
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    The New Science of Unidentified Aerospace-Undersea...Chaviano, 2013 aguadilla puerto rico uap: The detailed analysis of an unidentified...